Saudi-Iran agreement may change the political landscape of the Middle East

Two state-level policy changes in the Middle East are likely to combine to have a significant impact on regional stability in light of recent political developments.

After a seven-year hiatus, Saudi Arabia and Iran decided to resume diplomatic relations and reopen embassies on March 10 in a deal mediated by China and signed in Beijing. That is, as Simon Mabon remarked in an essay for the Conversation, a great development even though it is still far from putting an end to wars like the bloody war in Yemen.

The Times' Middle East correspondent Michael Spencer had previously written on a Gulf plot to normalize ties with the Assad regime in Syria.

If this allegation is true, the two occurrences will have a significant impact on Middle East affairs, not least because of recent social and political changes in Iran and Israel.

The Times article's main point was that some Arab countries desire to normalize their ties with Damascus, despite the US and its western partners' opposition. Sanctions should be loosened and there should be greater economic integration within the area.

Also, it will entail restoring Syria's membership in the Arab League, which was banned in 2012 as a result of its ruthless repression of Arab Spring demonstrators. The Saudi-Iran accord and the United Arab Emirates' (UAE) proposed action might potentially shift the balance of power.

According to early indications, China and each of the other regional autocracies will stand to gain from the two developments. By playing a significant role in the deal's facilitation, China will gain, elevating its status throughout the Islamic Middle East and North Africa.

Even if less directly, Russia is expected to gain. During the past ten years, it has methodically cultivated its military ties with Syria, beginning with the little naval base at Tartus, which might provide Moscow with a Mediterranean port with warm waters. A new floating dock for ship repair is being built as part of a major port development now taking place at Tartus.

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