Two state-level policy
changes in the Middle East are likely to combine to have a significant impact
on regional stability in light of recent political developments.
After a seven-year
hiatus, Saudi Arabia and Iran decided to resume diplomatic relations and reopen
embassies on March 10 in a deal mediated by China and signed in Beijing. That
is, as Simon Mabon remarked in an essay for the Conversation, a great development
even though it is still far from putting an end to wars like the bloody war in
Yemen.
The Times' Middle East
correspondent Michael Spencer had previously written on a Gulf plot to
normalize ties with the Assad regime in Syria.
If this allegation is
true, the two occurrences will have a significant impact on Middle East
affairs, not least because of recent social and political changes in Iran and
Israel.
The Times article's
main point was that some Arab countries desire to normalize their ties with
Damascus, despite the US and its western partners' opposition. Sanctions should
be loosened and there should be greater economic integration within the area.
Also, it will entail
restoring Syria's membership in the Arab League, which was banned in 2012 as a
result of its ruthless repression of Arab Spring demonstrators. The Saudi-Iran
accord and the United Arab Emirates' (UAE) proposed action might potentially
shift the balance of power.
According to early
indications, China and each of the other regional autocracies will stand to
gain from the two developments. By playing a significant role in the deal's
facilitation, China will gain, elevating its status throughout the Islamic
Middle East and North Africa.
Even if less directly,
Russia is expected to gain. During the past ten years, it has methodically
cultivated its military ties with Syria, beginning with the little naval base
at Tartus, which might provide Moscow with a Mediterranean port with warm
waters. A new floating dock for ship repair is being built as part of a major
port development now taking place at Tartus.
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