Iran's Recent Actions Refocus US Attention on the Middle East

Attacks on American forces in Syria are forcing Washington to return to the Middle East as it tries to refocus its attention and resources on China and Russia.

The Biden administration is having to deal with the region all over again after militants carried out a series of drone strikes late last week, killing one American contractor.

It occurs during significant geopolitical changes in the region that stretches from Libya to Afghanistan, including the resumption of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran earlier this month, mediated by China; negotiations to repair alliances between Saudi Arabia and Syria, mediated by Russia; and the failure of efforts by Iran and the United States to relaunch the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iran nuclear deal, under the auspices of Russia.

A senior fellow at the Middle East Institute said that "The Middle East is experiencing a sandstorm. And they've been changing very quickly over the past six months or so". The majority of this appears to be de-escalation on the surface and is being publicly described as such, but most of it is "paper thin."

According to experts, the realignments mean that Washington must quickly come up with a new diplomatic strategy for the region or else risk seeing its influence wane in the face of a more dangerous Iran and pass to rivals Moscow and Beijing.

"I think they're going to have to be more activist here," said Jonathan Panikoff, a former U.S. intelligence analyst on the Middle East and current expert on the region at the Atlantic Council.

"I think not addressing it and not undertaking greater attention to it — as much as I understand the Biden administration's desire to just manage the Middle East — I think they're going to have to be more activist here."

Without a change in strategy, he warned, "we risk not only undermining our deterrence, but we risk real challenges by Iran in ways that are threatening to U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria in a way that will just continue in a manner that's not acceptable."

Even though the United States continues to be the dominant political and military force in the Middle East, the region's stability has deteriorated over the past five years as a result of the bloody and chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021 and the Trump administration's decision to leave the Iran nuclear agreement in 2018.

Washington has also made it clear that it intends to focus on addressing threats from Russia and China rather than the past 20 years of actively pursuing terrorist organizations like the Islamic State, the Taliban, or al-Qaeda.

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