Crunch talks to set oil output for rest of year

Oil prices held steady after a crucial meeting yesterday between the oil producers that could set the tone of the global crude market for the rest of the year. Brent crude traded just above $75 as ministers from the 23-strong OPEC+ alliance, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, prepared for one of the most important meetings for many months. After their final round of meeting the officials will decide whether to increase production against a background of improving demand as the world climbs out of the pandemic recession.

Oil expert Robin Mills, chief executive of the Qamar Energy consultancy, mentioned that the market and forecasts are certainly signaling the need for more supply. However, the Energy Minister of Saudi Arabia, Prince Abdul Aziz bin Salman, is inclined to favor a cautious approach as the global market approaches rebalancing after the volatility of last year, with new COVID-19 variants threatening an economic recovery in several countries. He told a US investment forum that some forecasts for economic recovery and oil demand growth could turn out to be excessively optimistic.

The prime oil organization, OPEC+ is believed to be looking at a number of scenarios for the rest of the year. They will be following a three-month deal that will see the production till August and decide about the tone for the rest of the year. One option that lies is to increase production by about 500,000 barrels a day in August, and the possibility of locking that into another three-month period of graduated increases.

Even India’s top oil refiners are reducing processing runs and crude imports as the surging COVID-19 pandemic have cut fuel consumption, leading to higher product stockpiles at the plants. Indian Oil Corp, the country’s biggest refiner, has reduced runs to an average of between 85 per cent and 88 per cent of processing capacity.

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