Ukraine war: Growing Russia-Iran ties pose new dangers

 Russia's predicament in Ukraine has prompted Moscow to turn to Tehran for stocks of precision-guided weapons. Its own arsenals are fast running out.

There have been a number of instances where coastal defence and air defence missiles have been used by the Russians to strike at land targets in Ukraine - a role for which they are not best suited.

Transport flights have been monitored heading from Iran to Russia. Reports from US sources suggest that Iranian trainers from the IRGC - the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps - have deployed to a base in Crimea to teach Russian personnel how to operate the systems.

Wreckage from drones that have been shot down - both Iranian Shahed-131 loitering munitions (colloquially known as kamikaze drones) and the larger Shahed-136 - has been analysed. There is no doubt that Tehran, despite its denials, is compensating for a significant shortfall in Russia's arsenal. 

This is clearly not good news for Ukraine. While a significant number of the Iranian-supplied drones have been shot down there could be worse to come.

Iran has more capable loitering munitions in its arsenal. And there are fears that even more dangerous Iranian weapons - ballistic missiles - could soon be on their way to Russia.

These carry much larger warheads than the drones and Ukraine's anti-ballistic missile capability is limited. This could add a new level of complexity to Western efforts to bolster Ukraine's anti-air and anti-missile defences. 

But what of the wider ramifications of this deepening relationship between Moscow and Tehran?

There could be implications for the future of the moribund nuclear agreement between the international community and Tehran. Furthermore the delicate balance of forces in Syria could be altered with significant consequences for Israel and, in turn, for its relationship with Moscow.