Iranian Protests: From Democracy to Demands for Systemic Change" - Tracing the evolution of the Iranian protest movement and its current focus on broader demands for systemic change.

In the world of foreign policy, it has long been accepted that any significant military action against Iran would be counterproductive. The argument goes that such an action would activate Iranian nationalism, turning the opponents of the regime into angry patriots, while simultaneously causing hard-liners to become more recalcitrant and further foreclosing the possibility of reform.

However, 44 years after the Islamic revolution, this is no longer entirely true. Iranian nationalists are rejecting the status quo and are no longer as supportive of the regime. The ruling clergy has done much to anger the Iranian people since 1979, and little to win them over. The limited democracy that initially lent the government considerable domestic political legitimacy and popular support has been quashed by the ruling clergy.

As democracy died, protests grew in size and number, and the demands of the Iranian people have evolved from demands for democracy to demands for systemic change. The regime's systemic corruption, dismal economic record, extraordinary managerial incompetence during the Covid pandemic, and a foreign policy whose costs are more obvious than its benefits have alienated Iranians.

In light of these developments, the argument that foreign military action against Iran would be counterproductive must be reassessed. The changing attitudes of Iranian nationalists have made it more difficult for the regime to use nationalism as a rallying cry against foreign aggression. Additionally, given the growing opposition to the regime and the demand for systemic change, such military action may actually provide an opportunity for reform.

Overall, the passage of time has not been kind to Iran's theocracy, and the changing attitudes of Iranian nationalists must be taken into account when considering foreign policy towards the country. While military action must be approached with caution, it is no longer clear that such action would necessarily be counterproductive.A

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