UN warns climate change ‘will displace millions’ unless we act now

The UN has warned that climate change will lead to major migration crises impacting millions of people – unless urgent action is taken now. Last year alone, around 17 million people were forced to flee their homes worldwide because of natural disasters – and that is without counting migration between countries, the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) says. Longer-term, experts believe that number could increase dramatically, with global warming set to worsen issues which force people to migrate inside and outside of borders – like conflict, scarce resources and rising seas levels. Speaking exclusively to Metro.co.uk as a major conference on the environmental crisis continues in Madrid, one delegate warned that the problem is set to ‘stress the economic, social, and political systems that underpin each state’. Andrew Harper, the UN Refugee Agency’s (UNHCR) incoming Special Advisor on Climate Action, explained: ‘The impacts of climate change does not only trigger displacement but also threaten livelihoods and exacerbate food insecurity and competition for water and scarce resources. Countries that are currently fragile may be at further increased risk of falling into conflict due to the changing climate.’ He continued: ‘We need to be doing far more to help those states who have been doing everything they can to protect refugees but are at the same time most exposed to the calamities of climate change. ‘We cannot fail these states.’ The IDMC says that in 2018, 17.8 million people had to move within their own countries as a result of ‘disasters’ – 16.1 million of which related to extreme weather, with the rest a result of shocks like earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. But the number of people forced to flee across borders specifically because of environmental issues is far harder to calculate, ShabiaMantoo, a UNHCR spokeswoman, explained. Suggesting the ‘frequency and intensity’ of displacement events is increasing, she stressed that 84% of refugees are now in developing regions, which are more vulnerable to future climate problems. Predicting that such movement will continue, she used Somalians as an example of people fleeing because of interlinked climate and conflict issues. She explained: ‘The impacts of climate change can act as a threat multiplier for conflict and instability. ‘That can lead to humanitarian crises and also displacement – limited natural resources like drinking water and crops and livestock can threaten livelihoods and can exacerbate food and insecurity issues and provoke conflict over depleted resources.’ MsMantoo said that refugees and poorer regions are both more vulnerable to and less able to prevent events like droughts, flooding, and storms. In 2015, the year in which the European ‘refugee crisis’ began, around 1 million people came to the continent. But last year, just in the Philippines, 4 million were displaced internally as the country was battered by heavy storms – which are expected to strengthen and hit other regions in the future. The UNHCR believes early warning systems could limit sudden displacement from short term shocks, but called for urgent international action to lower emissions. Mr. Harper added: ‘We are witnessing a decreasing capacity of many states to adapt to the rapidly changing climate and mitigate the impacts of environmental degradation and climate shocks. ‘Investing in, and supporting, at-risk states from becoming more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change is critical for prevention and protection of vulnerable populations.’ MsMantoo said ‘gradually’ unfolding issues like rising sea levels would also cause mass displacement, but this was far more difficult to accurately predict. Island nations like the Maldives and countless major coastal cities are widely predicted to be underwater in years to come.