The finding of 7,000 "ghost soldiers" in the ranks of a poorly paid and poorly trained army underscores the need for assistance in Mozambique.
The daily newspaper Carta de Moçambique discovered
that many of the fake soldiers' salaries were paid to senior defence officials,
and that a growing number of children of former officers and politicians are
receiving salaries despite never having received military training, let alone
having served in a military unit.
More than 2,000 Rwandan troops were enough to wrest
control of the two coastal districts of Palma and Mocimboa da Praia, which are
located near massive gas resources. Despite their victories, the civil conflict
in Mozambique continues.
The current political battles are about money, the
causes of the war, who can fight, and whether the gas project can resume.
Cabo Delgado is Mozambique's resource-rich province,
containing natural resources such as gas, rubies, graphite, gold, and other
minerals.
Protests grew as it became clear that the profits went
entirely to the ruling party, Frelimo, and that few local employments were
being generated.
Historically, the coastline zone has been Muslim.
Local fundamentalist preachers claimed that Sharia, or Islamic law, would bring
equality and a fair distribution of wealth, thus promoting socialism.
The conflict began in 2017 when young people in
Mocimboa da Praia stormed and looted guns from the local police station and
army post.
More than 4,000 people have been killed and 800,000
have been displaced since then.
The first battle is over the war's origins. President
Filipe Nyusi and Frelimo claim that the attack is the result of external
aggression and that they are not to blame.
The European Union (EU) and the World Bank want to
contribute hundreds of millions of dollars to help end the war, partly by
creating jobs and settling grievances, but Frelimo has refused to present an
EU-World Bank plan to the cabinet for six months.
Outsiders are always drawn to civil wars, and there
has been some involvement from the Islamic State (IS) and jihadists from past
conflicts, as well as funding from some Middle Eastern countries.
Local issues, according to the majority of Mozambican
researchers, remain dominating. However, both the US and IS want this to be
perceived as a global conflict rather than a local civil war.
The US designated the insurgents as Isis-Mozambique
and "global terrorists" in March 2021.
The US declined to provide their proof, which was
largely dismissed by those researching the conflict.
On July 14, 2021, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken
stated that the major US objective in Mozambique was "countering
Isis."
On April 4, 2022, the United States designated
Mozambique as one of five countries under the Global Fragility Act, implying a
significant rise in US involvement in the country.
Meanwhile, IS began to refer to the terrorists as IS
Mozambique, evidently happy with the increased exposure for such a minor
outlay.
IS and the US appear to be looking for a proxy war in
Mozambique, according to the fear.
This brings back painful memories because, prior to
the end of the Cold War, the US launched a proxy war against the Soviet Union
in the 1980s, killing one million Mozambicans.
As a result, Mozambique is attempting to keep the
United States at bay. A limited military training operation has been permitted,
but no more.
Portugal and South Africa have both asked for their
forces to be sent in.
Portugal is a former colonial power that was defeated
in the independence war of 1965-1975 and has been attempting to reclaim its
military presence ever since.
It has dispatched troops to a European Union training
mission; the majority of the soldiers are Portuguese, but Greece, Spain, and
Italy have also contributed.
South Africa views Mozambique as its backyard and sees
itself as a regional power.
It lobbied for the formation of a military force for
the Southern African Development Community (Sadc). Mozambique is stuck.
Last year, President Nyusi met with Rwandan President
Paul Kagame and French President Emmanuel Macron.
Rwanda has a professional army that is highly involved
in peacekeeping missions, and TotalEnergies, the principal corporation in the
stalled gas project, is French.
The first 1,000 Rwandan forces arrived on July 9,
2021, and removed insurgents from crucial locations in three weeks.
The Sadc Mission in Mozambique (Samim) was established
in 2021, but Mozambique only let the first South African troops to enter on
July 19, after Rwandan troops had already been deployed.
The majority of the Samim forces are from South
Africa, but nine other Sadc countries have also provided troops. Angola,
Botswana, and Zimbabwe are among them.
Samim has been assigned to less crucial zones away
from the gas, where he has proven ineffective in combating the insurgents.
President Nyusi paid a visit to Uganda in late April
and met with President Yoweri Museveni, who got military training from Frelimo
in Cabo Delgado in the 1970s while fighting a guerrilla war against the Ugandan
government.
Mr Museveni said that he was already backing the
Mozambican military and recommended dispatching a contingent.
As a result, the Rwanda-Uganda-France axis is
assisting in the containment of South Africa, Portugal, and the United States.
Two more battles are still ongoing. The first is that
Frelimo and the military want to maintain tight control over the battle zone,
prohibiting journalists and relief workers from entering.
The government and military want to keep a tight grip
over aid delivery. Special humanitarian visas must be authorised by the
National Disaster Agency individually and are limited to working for a specific
organisation.
On April 28, TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanné
informed investors that no return to Mozambique would be possible until the
people of Mocimboa da Praia had returned to peace and were enjoying a normal
life. He stated that a simple security zone was insufficient.
However, the Mozambican government has so far refused
to allow displaced people to return to the majority of Mocimboa da Praia. They
claim that the conditions are not yet adequate, and that many displaced persons
are still supporting the insurgents.
As a result, there is a standoff. Will the government
allow people to return and relief agencies to enter, or are they hoping that
TotalEnergies will accept a security zone with no people?
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