Donald Trump’s impeachment is a black mark
against his presidency of historic proportions, but it does not guarantee his removal from office. That decision lies in the hands of the US Senate, the
another half of the US Congress, which will consider the issue during the blockbuster trial in January.
Unlike in the House of Representatives, where
a simple majority vote was enough to pass impeachment, two-thirds of senators
will need to vote to remove Mr Trump for it to happen.
That means 67 of the 100 senators must back
the move. Given there are only 47 Democrats or independents, 20 Republicans would have to support removal, which looks very unlikely. The trial itself, which has only ever
happened for two other US presidents, will be a moment of epic political
theatre and major consequence.
The Supreme Court’s chief justice – John
Roberts, who was nominated by Republican president George W Bush – will sit
as the judge for the trial. The 100
senators will act as the jury, watching on silently as the case for and
against convicting Mr Trump of the two articles of impeachment is put to
them.
Among them will be five senators competing for
the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination - Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth
Warren, Cory Booker, Amy Klobuchar and Michael Bennet.
Making the case for impeachment will be a team
of Democratic congressmen picked by Nancy Pelosi, the Democratic House speaker. Defending the president will be his lawyers.
How the trial will play out – the length,
which witnesses are called, what rules of debate are set – is largely up for
grabs, with few hard and fast parameters set by the US Constitution.
But here Mr Trump has one advantage – it is
the Republicans who hold the majority in the Senate and so call the shots,
providing their senators to go along with the party leadership.
The US president was said to have initially
favoured a lengthy trial where his supporters could vehemently lay out his
defence and – it was hoped – convince new swathes of the country.
Some Republicans had lobbied for Democratic
presidential hopeful Joe Biden and his son Hunter – the two men who Mr Trump
wanted to be investigated by Ukraine, triggering impeachment – to give evidence.
Democrats have also been lobbying publicly for
their own witnesses, including figures central to the Ukraine scandal who
have not yet given evidence, such as Mick Mulvaney, Mr Trump’s acting chief
of staff, and John Bolton, his former national security adviser.
However it seems the Republican senators, led
by Senator majority leader Mitch McConnell, favour a short trial of around
two weeks with no witnesses.
That would be markedly shorter than for the
two other US presidents to have been impeached – Andrew Johnson, who had a The 10-week trial, and Bill Clinton, whose trial lasted five weeks. Neither Mr Johnson nor Mr Clinton appeared
at their trial to give evidence in person – a precedent Mr Trump is expected
to follow.
He will also be hoping for the same result.
Neither Mr Johnson, who had replaced Abraham Lincoln after his assassination nor Mr Clinton, a Democrat, was removed from office. Mr Johnson survived by one vote.
Not one of the 53 Republican senators has
publicly said they will support removal. Some of those who have remained
neutral in public, such as Utah senator and former presidential candidate
Mitt Romney, have been hosted in the White House in recent weeks.
The country is split down the middle on
impeaching and removing Mr Trump. Around 47 per cent of Americans support the
move and the same proposition oppose it, with the rest having no opinion,
according to a poll of polls run by the political website 538.
However opposition to impeachment among
Republican voters is fierce, with nine in 10 being against removing Mr Trump
in some polls.
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